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Monday, October 13, 2008 - Weekly e-Newsletter - Issue No. 324

In this week's issue:

Economic Calendar

E-Mini Futures

Gold Futures

Crude Oil Futures

Currency Futures

ITTI's Top Systems

Employment Opportunities

Economic Calendar

Date

ET

Release

For

Consensus

Prior

Oct 13

14:00

Treasury Budget

Sep

NA

NA

Oct 15

08:30

Core PPI

Sep

0.2%

0.2%

Oct 15

08:30

NY Empire State Index

Oct

-10.0%

-7.4%

Oct 15

08:30

PPI

Sep

-0.3%

-0.9%

Oct 15

08:30

Retail Sales

Sep

-0.4%

-0.3%

Oct 15

08:30

Retail Sales ex-auto

Sep

0.1%

-0.7%

Oct 15

10:00

Business Inventories

Aug

0.4%

1.1%

Oct 15

10:35

Crude Inventories

10/11

NA

NA

Oct 15

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

 

 

 

Oct 16

08:30

Core CPI

Sep

0.2%

0.2%

Oct 16

08:30

CPI

Sep

0.1%

-0.1%

Oct 16

08:30

Initial Claims

10/11

NA

NA

Oct 16

09:00

Net Foreign Purchases

Aug

NA

NA

Oct 16

09:15

Capacity Utilization

Sep

78.0%

78.7%

Oct 16

09:15

Industrial Production

Sep

-0.8%

-1.1%

Oct 16

10:00

Philadelphia Fed

Oct

-5.0

3.8

Oct 17

08:30

Building Permits

Sep

845K

854K

Oct 17

08:30

Housing Starts

Sep

880K

895K

Oct 17

10:00

Mich Sentiment-Prel.

Oct

69.0

70.3

[View the complete international economic calendar]  [back to top]

E-Mini Futures Commentary

-Andrey Korchnoy, CTA, Sr. Systems Analyst

U.S. stocks plunged, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its worst week in 75 years, on concern the credit crisis will spread from banks to consumer companies and energy producers, triggering a global recession. Sales at U.S. retailers probably dropped in September as mounting job losses, plunging home prices and the deepening credit crisis shook consumers, economists said before reports next week. The S&P 500 has fallen 39 percent this year, led by financial companies, as losses tied to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market topped $630 billion. The benchmark S&P index is poised for its worst annual performance since 1937.

[read more]  [back to top]

Gold Futures Commentary

-Trenton Kimminau, Margins Analyst/Futures Broker

Gold futures gained 25.8 points for the week to close at 859.0. An impressive rally had December futures trading as high as 936.3 during early trading on Friday before a massive sell-off in gold drove prices down to the weekly low at 829 the same day. The dollar spiked in value against other currencies on the last day of the week and this was the main force behind the selling. Gold has gained popularity recently as a hedge against a falling equities market. However, uncertainty in the market can cause day of extreme volatility like we saw on Friday. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve joined 5 other major central banks and cut the fed funds rate by 0.5 %. The European Central Bank, The Bank of England, The People’s Bank of China, The Swiss, Canadian, and The Swedish central banks also made cuts as part of a joint emergency action. Gold futures rallied 24.5 points on that day as stocks were mixed and the emergency actions did not cause much short-term relief to the weak stock markets. The economic situation in the U.S. and global markets continues to be the biggest factor on gold prices.

[read more]  [back to top]

Currency Futures Overview

- Andrey Korchnoy, CTA/Sr. Systems Analyst 

The euro rose the most in three weeks against the dollar and the yen after European leaders agreed to guarantee bank borrowing and prevent big lenders from going under. Generally investors should buy the dollar while selling the euro and the pound because interest rates in Europe and the U.K. will fall faster than in the U.S. The pound dropped to the lowest level against the dollar in almost five years on concern a dispute between the U.K. and Iceland over financial assets in each other's countries will escalate.

[read more]  [back to top]

Crude Oil Futures Overview

-Andrey Korchnoy, CTA, Sr. Systems Analyst

Crude oil rose from a 13-month low in New York on speculation action by European leaders to prevent the region's major lenders from collapsing may help slow credit market turmoil threatening to stall the global economy.

Mini Crude Oil reached supports below $80.00 and probably will find some trading range at this level. Now that speculation against energy demand is over, the price is returning to the levels where real demand matches the supply.

[read more]  [back to top]

Automated Trading System Results

Hypothetical Performance Results from ITTI,
Our Featured Automated Systems Vendor

 

Top Futures Systems of the Last 12 Months
 

Click on any of the above systems to view complete report.  Please note past performance does not guarantee future results and no such claims are being made or implied. There is a risk of loss in futures, forex and systems trading. All demo accounts used to display the performance results of these trade recommendations for use in conveying to you the value of the system and all trading records presented on this website are hypothetical. The systems performance shown above does not consider systems subscription fees and includes $25 allowance per trade for slippage, commissions and fees. The annual % return is calculated based on the net return. The net return is calculated as gross - $25 allowance for commissions and fees.  Results updated 10/5/2008.

Market News - Oct. 03, 2008
-Devin Brady, Sr. Market Strategist


Energy

Crude oil fell more than 12-percent this week, with the November contract sliding $13.01 to settle at $93.88 a barrel. Concerns that weakening economic data will result in further demand destruction, combined with strength in the U.S. dollar set the stage for an ugly week in oil.

The Commerce Department reported a steep decline of 4-percent in factory orders for August, well above the 2.5-percent drop analysts expected. August marked the largest decline since falling 4.8-percent in October of 2006.

On Thursday, The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims increased by 1,000 climbing to a seasonally adjusted 497,000, considerably above analyst expectations of 475,000. Jobless claims reached the highest level since just after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 seven years ago.

The EIA reported that U.S. inventories of crude oil rose 4.28 million barrels to 294.5 million last week, well above analysts 2.5 million barrel estimate. Refinery utilization increased 5.6-percent to 72.3-percent after storms reduced supplies last month.

Natural gas futures fell 3.5-percent on the week, with the November contract settling at $7.358 a million British thermal units. A larger than expected build of inventories, combined with overall commodity weakness was noted for the decline.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a build of 87 billion cubic feet of natural gas last week, well above the 78 bcf injection analysts were anticipating.

November reformulated gasoline closed at $2.2283 a gallon, and November heating oil settled at $2.662 a gallon.

Grains

Soybeans fell 15-percent on the week, with the November contract settling $1.72 lower at $9.92 a bushel. Falling export sales and estimates for soybean supplies to grow more than projected earlier by analysts helped send soybeans to the lowest level in 11-months.

Soybean stocks in the fourth quarter of the 2007-08 were estimated at 205 million bushels as of Sept. 1, the USDA reported. The number came in well above the analyst expectations for 144 million bushels with a 140 million bushel carry out.

U.S. export sales of soybeans came in at 471,000 metric tons in the week ended Sept. 25, down 23-percent from the previous week, the USDA reported this week.

Corn collapsed the most in over 20-years, with the December contract settling the week 89 cents lower at $4.54 a bushel. Falling energy prices, rising value of the dollar, and higher inventory data helped send corn 20-percent lower on the week.

Corn inventories in the U.S. as of Sept. 1 were pegged at 1.624 billion bushels, reported the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Analysts were expecting a fall of 1.539 billion. The USDA also predicted a 14-percent decline in demand for corn feed.

Wheat fell 12-percent on the week, with the December contract settling 78 cents lower at 640 1/4 a bushel. Fund liquidations, and pressure from the global equity markets was noted for some of the decline on the week.

Metals

Gold closed the week 7-percent lower, with the December contract shedding $59.60 at $828.90 an ounce. Gold started the week higher as a flight to safety before the falling energy markets, and the strength in the U.S. dollar gave the bears more ammo. December silver settled the week $2.15 lower at $11.36 an ounce.

The U.S. Senate and House approval of the $700 billion bailout plan sent the dollar significantly higher, reducing the appeal of precious metals as a flight-to-safety. The U.S. dollar climbed to the highest level in 13-months this week.

Copper was slammed by 14-percent this week, with the December contract settling over 38 cents lower at $2.69 a pound. Lower housing and auto sales have sent base metals in a tailspin. Copper is at an 18-month low, and platinum and palladium, that is used in new cars, are down over a third on the year.

The U.S. government’s existing home sales report showed sales of previously owned homes crumbled more than expected last month in the U.S., with the median price sliding the most on record.

Softs

Coffee fell to a fresh yearly low, with the December contract settling 12 cents lower on the week at $1.2205 a pound. Rising inventories, a slowdown in the global economy, and a rise in the value of the U.S. dollar was noted for much of 10-percent loss for the week.

U.S. coffee inventories have climbed 2.3-percent to 4.57 million bags. Brazil, the world's largest grower of the bean, is expected to harvest 51.1 million bags this year, well above last years 37.6 million, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasted.

Cotton closed 8-percent lower on the week, settling at 57.41 cents a pound. Huge inventories and spill-over pressure from the falling grain market was noted for December hitting a fresh contract-low.

Cocoa settled the week 11-percent lower with the December contract closing at 2469 a metric ton. November orange juice settled the week 10-percent lower at 82.10 cents a pound.

Meats

Cattle settled the week about 5-percent lower, with October feeder cattle losing just over a nickel at 100.67 cents a pound. Concerns that cash strapped consumers will rotate into cheaper proteins continues to weigh on market sentiment. October live cattle sank to a fresh contract low settling at 95.60 cents a pound.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's midday beef wire for Friday showed choice cuts were $0.80 per hundredweight lower, while select items fell by $0.15 per hundredweight.
Hog futures closed the week moderately lower, with October lean hogs falling 320 points at 66.42 cents a pound. Fund liquidation continues to weigh on prices. February pork bellies fell 390 points on the week, settling 94.10 cents a pound
.
 


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