Resources | Global Futures
Trading Platforms

Monday, August 3, 2015 - Weekly e-Newsletter - Issue No. 664

Receive this newsletter by email

Economic Calendar
Date
ET
Release
For
Consensus
Prior
Aug 3
8:30 AM
Personal Income
Jun
NA
0.5%
Aug 3
8:30 AM
Personal Spending
Jun
NA
0.9%
Aug 3
8:30 AM
PCE Prices - Core
Jun
NA
0.1%
Aug 3
10:00 AM
ISM Index
Jul
NA
53.5
Aug 3
10:00 AM
Construction Spending
Jun
NA
0.8%
Aug 3
5:00 PM
Auto Sales
Jul
NA
5.6M
Aug 3
5:00 PM
Truck Sales
Jul
NA
8.0M
Aug 4
10:00 AM
Factory Orders
Jun
NA
-1.0%
Aug 5
7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Index
08/01
NA
NA
Aug 5
8:15 AM
ADP Employment Change
Jul
NA
237K
Aug 5
8:30 AM
Trade Balance
Jun
NA
-$41.9B
Aug 5
10:00 AM
ISM Services
Jul
NA
56.0
Aug 5
10:30 AM
Crude Inventories
08/01
NA
NA
Aug 6
7:30 AM
Challenger Job Cuts
Jul
NA
9.3%
Aug 6
8:30 AM
Initial Claims
08/01
NA
NA
Aug 6
8:30 AM
Continuing Claims
07/29
NA
NA
Aug 6
10:30 AM
Natural Gas Inventories
08/01
NA
NA
Aug 7
8:30 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls
Jul
NA
223K
Aug 7
8:30 AM
Nonfarm Private Payrolls
Jul
NA
223K
Aug 7
8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate
Jul
NA
5.3%
Aug 7
8:30 AM
Hourly Earnings
Jul
NA
0.0%
Aug 7
8:30 AM
Average Workweek
Jul
NA
34.5
Aug 7
3:00 PM
Consumer Credit
Jun
NA
$16.1B
 
Weekly Trading Insight
This Week's Topic: The problem with the Win Rate

You’ve probably come across numerous trading methodologies or systems that boast a high win rate. 75% to 90% winning trades some will say. Is this too good to be true? Is such a high win rate sustainable? What you don’t often read about is the win/loss ratio, the risk/reward ratio, the historical drawdown, and every piece of information that outlines the risk. Once you put together the basic but necessary data, you will start to see what hides behind the win rate, and most often, it’s not very good. If you want to learn a few basic techniques to analyze trading performance, it’s available in e-book form.

We’re not trying to sell you a trading method.

We’re trying to show you a few basic methods to debunk false claims.

 
This Week in History

8/2/1824 - America's most fashionable street--known for upscale businesses such as Tiffany's and McCreery's--started as a residential area.

8/3/1981 - 13,000 members of U.S. PATCO went on strike; President Reagan fired 11,500 strikers--a big hit to organize labor

8/4/1997 - Organized labor struck UPS with a successful strike after a series of defeats in 1980; UPS conceded to demands and sales volume dropped 8%

8/5/1983 - Court ruling forced AT&T to split its monopolostic hold into seven regional service providers; assets shrunk from $149.5 to $34 billion

8/6/1997 - Microsoft bought a minority stake in struggling computer company, Apple, after which the latter made a gradual comeback

8/7/1928 - The dollar was reduced in physical size; new notes were 1/3 size and reduced 25% more the following year

8/8/1974 - With little confidence in Gerald Ford's to turn around economy, Nixon's announced resignation caused downturn in stock market - FBI was born when U.S. Attorney General Bonaparte ordered newly hired federal investigators to report to the DOJ

Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - EUR / USD
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 32: Aug 3-7), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 42.86% and fallen 57.14% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 49 (0.0049) while the average fall in pips stands at 88 (0.0088). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.56:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 1.77:1.

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - AUD / USD
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 32: Aug 3-7), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 47.62% and fallen 52.38% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 31 (0.0031) while the average fall in pips stands at 75 (0.0075). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.42:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 2.40:1.

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - GBP / USD
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 32: Aug 3-7), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 35.00% and fallen 65.00% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 51 (0.0051) while the average fall in pips stands at 109 (0.0109). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.46:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 2.16:1.

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - USD / CAD
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 32: Aug 3-7), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 38.10% and fallen 61.90% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 31 (0.0031) while the average fall in pips stands at 49 (0.0049). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.62:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 1.61:1.

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - USD / CHF
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 32: Aug 3-7), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 52.38% and fallen 47.62% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 67 (0.0067) while the average fall in pips stands at 68 (0.0068). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.98:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 1.02:1.

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - USD / JPY
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 32: Aug 3-7), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 52.38% and fallen 47.62% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 52 (0.52) while the average fall in pips stands at 78 (0.78). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.67:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 1.50:1.

This weekly newsletter is also available as an email-based subscription.  If you would like to subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter (or any of our other subscription services), click here.