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Monday, May 18, 2015 - Weekly e-Newsletter - Issue No. 653

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Economic Calendar
Date
ET
Release
For
Consensus
Prior
May 18
10:00 AM
NAHB Housing Market Index
May
NA
56
May 19
8:30 AM
Housing Starts
Apr
NA
926K
May 19
8:30 AM
Building Permits
Apr
NA
1039K
May 20
7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Index
05/16
NA
-3.5%
May 20
10:30 AM
Crude Inventories
05/16
NA
-2.191M
May 20
2:00 PM
FOMC Minutes
4/29
-
-
May 21
8:30 AM
Initial Claims
05/16
NA
264K
May 21
8:30 AM
Continuing Claims
05/09
NA
2229K
May 21
10:00 AM
Existing Home Sales
Apr
NA
5.19M
May 21
10:00 AM
Philadelphia Fed
May
NA
7.5
May 21
10:00 AM
Leading Indicators
Apr
NA
0.2%
May 21
10:30 AM
Natural Gas Inventories
05/16
NA
111 bcf
May 22
8:30 AM
CPI
Apr
NA
0.2%
May 22
8:30 AM
Core CPI
Apr
NA
0.2%
 
Weekly Trading Insight
This Week's Topic: Following the Smart Money

A prominent market technician once wrote that market patterns and trends are the “footprints of smart money.” Let’s stop to think about this. Can the traders who make up the smart money crowd predict market movements (in short, predict the future)? Markets are made up of multiple traders: scalpers, short to intermediate term traders, position traders, and hedgers. They all have different agendas, time-frames, strategies, and capital resources. If there is a smart money crowd out there, they have different goals that probably don’t coincide with one another. Market movements are the result of market actions with different and possibly conflicting agendas. Next time you hear about smart money in this context, keep in mind that it is simply a catch phrase. It also conceals the reality of markets: perpetual change, conflict of goals and means, and indeterminacy.

 

Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - EUR / USD
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 21: May 18 - 22), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 50% and fallen 50% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 66 (0.0066) while the average fall in pips stands at 68 (0.0068). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.97:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 1.03:1.

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - AUD / USD
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 21: May 18 - 22),based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 47.62% and fallen 52.38% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 49 (0.0049) while the average fall in pips stands at 26 (0.0026). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 1.93:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 0.52:1.


 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - GBP / USD
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 21: May 18 - 22), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 57.14% and fallen 42.86% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 88 (0.0088) while the average fall in pips stands at 30 (0.0030). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 2.89:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 0.35:1.

 

 

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - USD / CAD
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 21: May 18 - 22), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 47.62% and fallen 52.38% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 32 (0.0032) while the average fall in pips stands at 53 (0.0053). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.60:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 1.66:1.

 

 

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - USD / CHF
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 21: May 18 - 22), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 47.62% and fallen 52.38% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 65 (0.0065) while the average fall in pips stands at 87 (0.0087). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.74:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 1.34:1.

 

 

 
Weekly Forex Seasonality Report - USD / JPY
Global Futures

Historical performance for this week (Week 21: May 18 - 22), based on collected data from 1994 to 2014 has shown that this currency pair has risen 47.62% and fallen 52.38% of the time in the years combined. The average rise in pips stands at 51 (0.51) while the average fall in pips stands at 53 (0.53). To date, the ratio of pips up to down is 0.98:1, while the ratio of pips down to up is 1.02:1.

 

 

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